They write that the electoral record shows that not only are bellwether counties poor predictors of who will win a presidential election, rising polarization means that their ability to predict long streaks of elections has been in decline over the last two decades. A former Republican stronghold, Wood County supported GOP candidates Gerald Ford in 1976, and Donald Trump in 2020. He loves this country. (Cara Ding/The Epoch Times). I think he is more for giving to the people.. Every time you pass a law, the government becomes more oppressive. Ottawa County along Lake Erie in northwest Ohio had one of the nation's longest streaks of supporting the presidential candidate who won the White House. When there was, we were making money pulling people out of ditches.. They are not even the regular masks to filter it out. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck and neck. The counties tend to be clustered in the Midwest and the Northeast, with only four of the counties not falling into one of those regions, they said. By continuing to use our site, you accept our use of cookies, revised Privacy Policy and Terms of Use. I just got on Social Security disability, because I cant work anymore. He likes that Trump upholds law and order amid the social unrest. Im not even sure what direction were going.. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic, while Westmoreland County in Virginia is almost one-third black. Your email address will not be published. It was easy. I believe in a time cycle. Were not going to be able to afford this Democratic regime. Westmoreland is the only one in the South; Clallam is the only county on the West Coast, and Hidalgo and Valencia are the only counties in the Mountain West. He said hes had trouble getting a job for much of his life, because he was found guilty of a felony drug offense as a young man. He doesnt take the money; hes got the money. But the thing that stuck out in my head, every time I read or listened to anything about [Obamas] policies, I saw such a deep revival of division, causing division between the blacks and the whites again, Jacobs said on Sept. 17. Required fields are marked *. He thinks the current criminal justice system imprisons too many people. She only voted once, at the urging of her husband, when they got married about 30 years ago. I cannot support a candidate that is not pro-life. Pro-life is one of the top items on his list of issues. We need jobs up here, good-paying full-time jobs, she added. Myerss morals include being respectful to others, and he thinks Trump has failed in that regard. This year, after seeing the country shut down amid the pandemic, and seeing riots break out in many cities, I just think its time that I should start voting, she said. The shift is evident when comparing current registrations with the 2016 numbers. bellwether counties epoch timesjury duty summons date vs reporting date Get Business Credit and Financing To Grow Your Business!!! The bellwether scores map highlights the fact that many states have a good bellwether county or two, even if they did not make the list of the nineteen counties which have always voted for the winning candidate, they said. People need to get a job, get out and work. With the price of gas going up, Zulch is afraid of a return to high fuel prices caused by Hurricane Katrina in Louisiana 16 years ago and that soaring costs will again hurt his business. (Charlotte Cuthbertson/The Epoch Times). Guests are invited to enjoy live music from The BanDura BanDuo, featuring Angelika and Justin Mehes, a brother-sister musical act, visit the Cheremosh Ukrainian Dance Ensemble's costume display featuring traditional Ukrainian folk dance costumes, and connect with the . Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. Until we have term limits for politicians, this country doesnt have a prayer.. Theres too much corruption. I look at the picture of what hes doing for my country.. She also said that many people who come into the pub are outspoken about the current state of affairs in the United States, especially on Saturdays when the crowds are larger. Third, it lists the fraction of bellwether counties each candidate won Obama at 18 of 19, Trump at 18 of 19 and Biden at one of 19. January 4, 2021: Rep. Jordan tweets an Epoch Times article about his effort to challenge Electoral College votes. Also, spare a thought for Webster County in Georgia. Please read our comments policy before commenting. I dont watch TV. As far as Wood County being a bellwether county, we do have a mixed group of people here. Workforce shortages are mostly everywhere, he said. He also believes many local Biden voters made the decision to vote for the Democratic candidate years ago, but theyre not going to be vocal about it.. And then you have the Biden folks that are like, This is just nutty,' he said. As for the pandemic, he doesnt think Trump has done a bad job on that. Taking the pulse in Vigo County, Indiana, which has voted for the presidential winner in all but two elections over the past century, Cara is an Orange County, New York-based Epoch Times reporter. An Emerson poll conducted shortly before Election Day was completely off, showing Trump and Biden neck-to-neck. As the 2022 mid-term elections near (May 3 in Ohio), one might think that the Republican and Democratic headquarters might be open and in full swing, but at both party offices the week of Feb. 21, the lights were out and no one was occupying the desks inside or answering the phones. Seasonal businesses such as ferries, dairy docks, ice cream stands, Cheesehaven, and fudge factories, are closed. Thats about 43 percent of the eligible voters in the country, according to a study of nonvoters overseen by professors at Tufts University and Stony Brook University. If that date were to change, the Ohio legislature is the only one who can request to postpone or change the date of an election through legislative action.. Miller is often faced with tough decisions in his business. Theyre scared. TRENDING: Meet Samuel Armes - Groomed by the CIA and FBI and Author of the Original "1776 Returns" FED-SURRECTION Document - That He . Ive heard all the whiners complaining about what hes doing, but I havent really seen anything hardcore. The issues most important to Fannin include the economy, border security, and the virus. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. Even if the mean likelihood of a match between county and presidential outcome is exactly 50 percent, in the classic argument offered by Deutsch and Madow in 1961, on the appearance of wisdom in large organizations, some counties will, by chance alone, have high records of predictive success and some may even have perfect records, especially if there are many counties and if we limit the number of elections over which we are requiring successful predictions. I think it worked out without me.. Residents who were asked about any candidate choices tended to be true to their reputation as a bellwether county, with more of a wait-and-see type of attitude of seeing whos going to step up as a presidential candidate in 2024. Recently, the company needed to find a part for one of its trucks, and it actually located the only part available in the United States and was able to get it. But what would be striking is for it to end so radically. "If. Thus it would appear that bellwether. Though Myers leans toward Trump, he hasnt made up his mind to vote for him yet; he didnt vote for Trump in 2016. This shows not only his strength but also the level of polarisation that took place in the 2020 elections.. The Fall of the Bellwether Counties This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Your email address will not be published. Trump is challenging the results in several states, alleging fraud, voter suppression, and illegal restrictions on Republican poll watchers. Racine County, WI might be the single best bellwether: if it called all the elections with missing data elections correctly, it would have 86% correct. Portman wont be seeking reelection; seven Republicans are competing in the primary election for the partys nomination: Matt Dolan, Mike Gibbons, Josh Mandel, Neil Patel, Mark Pukita, Jane Timken, and J.D. We need to make sure we keep our gun rights.. I just want Trump in. To accept cookies, click continue. Jacobs believes theres more enthusiasm for Trump now than before the 2016 electionin Elk County and around the country. He soon lost his car, because he fell behind on license plate fees. People are so worked up about it all the time, stressed out. Martin thinks the Democrats could have chosen a better candidate than Biden. But not only are bellwethers not really predictors of future success, the likelihood of finding long streaks of prior predictive success has gone down. While Zulch said he voted for Trump in both presidential elections, he says hell have to wait and see who runs before saying who he would vote for in 2024. Here, a farming operation is pictured in Bowling Green, Ohio in Wood County, a bellwether county in America's Heartland experiencing problems such as inflation and high gas prices, affecting every day life. Many counties in states that have reliably voted for one party for many cycles are home to counties which have almost always voted for the winner of the election; for example, South Carolina has two strong bellwether counties despite being a reliably Republican state, and California has a number of strong bellwethers in its central valley despite being a reliably Democratic state.. Yet unofficial vote counts now show Biden in the lead and with enough electoral votes to claim the presidency. Two states have announced recounts. He said Vigo County is fairly evenly divided between those who identify as Republicans and those who identify as Democrats. Longtime Bowling Green resident Doug Miller, a conservative and Donald Trump supporter who works as a chief operating officer for a heavy-duty trucking company in nearby Fremont, said the company, which was heavily affected during the pandemic, is still navigating challenges. Figure 1 Counties expected to have unbroken or near unbroken string of correct matches with national election outcome if each county has a 50 percent chance of voting for the winner. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain. The unhappiness and unsatisfactory conditions have spread similar to the way COVID-19 has, a truck driver by the name of Sam, who also was at Wee Willys, told The Epoch Times. Both Jacobs and her husband switched to Republican and Ive never looked back, she said. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Im not happy with the way things are now. I got a life. The insulting back and forth really bothers me about any candidate, Myers said. Our infrastructure is in bad shape.. Its the rural American, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment county that gave the edge to Barack Obama in 2008. A number of fertilizer plants closed across the country last year due to natural gas shortages. Demographically, the bellwether counties tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole. Understanding the I-4 corridor's bellwether mojo requires defining the area. Trump swiped 51 of them by an average margin of nearly 15 points. In politics, a "bellwether" refers to a geographic area whose political beliefs and voting preferences reflect that of a wider area. We want to get people off of welfare, we need to get people back into working again, being self sustainable. With respect to the notion that bellwethers are demographically representative, this appears not to true. We have to figure out a way to control fuel prices. This includes personalizing content and advertising. Those dollars wont be there, because people will be buying gas. It doesnt matter whether you are a Republican or a Democrat, youre going to get a crook. I dont think you should take that away from me.. 2020: Trump - 59.1%, Biden - 38.5. Jim Hoft. A 75-year-old retiree who owned a transportation and logistics business didnt want to be named and told The Epoch Times hes been skeptical of government since he was 30. He was working on his neighbors lawn when he paused to talk to The Epoch Times. Unfortunately, however, neither of the reasons for why we might think that previous bellwethers will continue to be bellwethers is valid. Bellwethers ability to predict the winner has been attributed to a large population of voters willing to switch party preference from one election to the next. And it can happen.. Wood Countyaswith Ottawa County, its neighbor to the east along Lake Erieis filled with farm fields, is home to many military veterans (about 7,000 of them), and hasnt seen much expansion or change since the late 1970s or early 1980s. Overall, the county is in good shape, and has a lot going for it.. Because of the current situation, I have to look at our finances and say, Can I get this new truck, can I hire these two to three new employees, can we go into this new line of business? Jason Armagost of Mudbeards Bikes and Boards has chosen to stay out of politics and doesnt vote. This includes personalizing content and advertising. This includes personalizing content and advertising. One such claim is that Trumps victories in 2020 in the vast bulk of the counties that had previously been labeled as bellwethers proved that Trump really won the election and was denied the victory because of fraud. It was everything, all at once, all of a sudden. Epoch Times Canada (@EpochTimesCan) November 16, 2020. Its kind of like used-car salesmen: if their lips are moving, theyre probably lying.. Jeff Myers, a lifelong Vigo County resident in Riley, on the other hand, wont let the big events of the day, such as riots and the pandemic, determine his vote. We are a rural county here, Hill told The Epoch Times. Notify me of follow-up comments by email. They mostly favor who they believe would be best suited to tackle the issues at hand. Sawyer County, Wisconsin, and Clallam County, Washington, have substantial Native American populations, the authors said. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. Peoples common sense level is cooked. In the southern area just off Interstate 75 sits Bowling Green, the county seat and home of Bowling Green State University and Doyt L. Perry Stadium, where the Falcons draw large crowds in the Mid-American Conference. bellwether. Carol Jacobs in Ridgway, Elk County, Penn., on Sept. 17, 2020. Just two have populations in excess of 100,000, the authors said. We have vendors and suppliers we contract with, Chamberlin said. On Sept. 14, a federal judge ruled Wolfs shutdown and restrictions on businesses unconstitutional, but the governor has since appealed. I hope.. If he wouldve just kept his mouth shut , Im not happy with the way things are now, Beggs added. In particular, recent research which identified nineteen bellwether counties found that they "tended to be whiter, older, less educated, have lower median incomes, have a lower percentage of workers in the labor force, and have higher rates of vacant housing than the country as a whole." By Cara Ding. Chamberlin, who has worked for the regional chain for 17 years, estimates he has saved about $2,000 in gas over the past year. We and the rest of the states boards of elections have been directed by the Ohio Secretary of States Office to hold the election on May 3. The legislature of Orange County, New York, unanimously passed a revised spending plan of close to $75 million in federal COVID-19 . Donald Trump 16 out of 39 counties which are considered significant bellwethers. The roads are bad, the price of gas is high, its one thing after another. A lot of people think things are. In addition to seeing a 25 percent increase in fuel costs in the past year, the company has resorted to buying used trucks instead of new ones when it needs them. The way he spoke to President Trump bothers me even more, because hes speaking to my president. Itll be interesting to see who wins Sen. Whats happening is affecting everybody, he said. He isnt happy that Biden called Trump names during the first debate. I just think theres going to be a lot of problems if he doesnt become our president all the violence and the riots. She registered as a Democrat about 40 years ago and has never bothered to change her affiliation, although she voted for Trump in 2016 and plans to do the same this year. Armagost was lucky during the shutdowns, as bike shop repairs and maintenance were considered essential and he remained in business. They missed in 1908 and 1952, but otherwise, the county has well earned its reputation as a bellwether. Carol Jacobs and her husband were lifelong Democrats until 2016. The United States needs to get back to where were responsible, energy independent, and get away from the thought process of these liberal socialists in office., Government is out of control, he added. Epoch Times, Gateway Pundit, and EveryLegalVote.com show a different electoral vote count for two reasons: They exclude states with pending litigation or recounts, subtracting votes from. The Democrats who are vying for that partys nomination are Morgan Harper, Traci Johnson, and Tim Ryan, who has been serving in Congress for the past 2o years, or 10 consecutive terms. Meanwhile, Miller and Zulch voiced their support for restarting the Keystone XL pipeline to help the United States return to energy independence and provide oil to European countries experiencing gas shortages and high prices. The price of gas at the Marathon gas station in Port Clinton was $3.39 a gallon on Feb. 22 whenDave Beggs, anarmy veteran and retired City of Port Clinton heavy equipment operator, pulled in. I think its very political right now, honestly. Only 1 of 17 bellwether counties went for Biden this year! The Epoch Times spoke with some voters in Terre Haute and surrounding towns on Oct. 20 to get a glimpse of the bellwether mood ahead of the presidential election. I kind of keep in my bubble. Longtime Rep. Marcy Kaptur, a Democrat who has been in Congress since 1983, is running for reelection; Teresa Gavarone and J.R. Majewski are competing in the GOP primary. "The Wall Street Journal and The Epoch Times independently analyzed the results of 19 counties around the United States that have nearly perfect presidential voting records over the last 40 years. Since he became a Christian in the mid-1990s, he said hes used his moral compass to determine his vote. The All-Or-Nothing Bellwether: These are states or counties that choose the national winner every time. And then theres Vigo Countyin Indianathe quintessential bellwether that has correctly picked the winner in all but two elections since 1888. She said her husband will vote for Trump, too. Shortened URL for this post:https://bit.ly/3JzjZ3j. First, we can readily imagine that some counties demographically/politically mirror the nation, and thus monitoring this small set of counties closely would tell us with high predictive reliability what will happen nationally. There are three counties that voted with the eventual winner for each of the past 10 elections,. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. . Rarely are we really stuck with people in leadership that are fairly moderate. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. Because of supply chain issues, its also difficult to find parts, Miller said. In 2020, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. Ive got opinions, but I just dont voice them, I keep to myself, he said, adding that its better for business. But hes pleased with how Trump has run the country and is eager to reelect him. Terry Titchner, 70, said hes voting for Biden because he doesnt trust Trump. I tend to vote my morals, Myers told The Epoch Times. And this years election is unlike any other, in which mail-in voting has become the norm, injecting an air of uncertainty into a year already full of upheaval. They caused this, they brought it on because they dont like him, Fannin said. Copyright 2000 - 2023 The Epoch Times Association Inc. All Rights Reserved. They take pride in going to work, owning their home, having that simple life. This year, Vigo went for Trump by nearly 15 points, roughly the same as in 2016. 2016 Trump. Were a service industry-oriented area. 0:00 0:00. The county is more white than the rest of the nationabout, nationally, according to census data. I have not seen any division like this [before]., I believe that is because of our current president, so my main issue is that he does not stay president.. The state as a whole is going more Republican, Wood County Board of Elections Director Julie Baumgardner told The Epoch Times. Natural gas is a key ingredient in the process used to make the nitrogen-based fertilizer used on crops such as corn and wheat. Since its founding in 1853 it has only got 13 out of the 37 extant elections right. Ever since COVID started, it hasnt gotten any better.. We have to stand and fight for the constitution our forefathers created. The 19 bellwethers tend to be poorer, whiter, older, and less educated than the rest of the country, according to an August paper by researchers from the University of Denver and University of New Hampshire. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. In 2016, Pennsylvania itself was wrenched out of its 24-year run as a Democratic sure bet when Donald Trump cleared just over 44,000 more votes than Hillary Clinton and took the states prized 20 electoral votes. Washington County, Maine - one miss since 1972 (in 1976), perfect since 1980. Eleven of the nineteen were located in just six Midwestern states, and Wisconsin alone is home to four, they said. Growth in recent years has been a challenge, if not nonexistent, he said. If we dont stop them, if we dont take a stand basically were moving into socialism.. July 4, 2022 bellwether counties epoch timesdid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independencedid benjamin franklin help write the declaration of independence Republican Gov. Both Hidalgo and Valencia County, New Mexico, are close to 60 percent Hispanic. Those counties were: Warren County, Ill. Vigo County, Ind. Colleton County, South Carolina - one miss since 1968 (in 1980), perfect since 1984. With a fragile economy following the peak of the COVID-19 pandemic, Ohio is eyeing the May 3 primary election with Wood County at somewhat of a standstill. Im looking at both sides of it. I just dont think hes capable of doing the job that its going to require of him.. The northern portion of the county, in towns such as Rossford and Northwood, is the blue-collar and working-class crowd and Perrysburg is home to upscale housing developments. President Trump won every single bellwether county, except Clallam County in Washington. Over the past nearly 40 years, presidential elections have observed an intriguing phenomenon: 19 counties in the nation have always voted for the winner, be it Republican or Democrat. Here's why. Mainstream polls are suggesting a Pennsylvania win for Biden, but, if the 2016 polls were anything to go by, theyre about as useful as a screen door on a submarine. In Terre Haute, 52-year-old Scott Hamilton said the main issue for him in this election is how divided the nation is; he said Trump is mostly to blame. Bellwether Counties Went Overwhelmingly for Trump in 2020. (Michael Sakal/The Epoch Times). Bobby Tisdell stands in front of his home in West Terre Haute, Vigo County, Ind., on Oct. 20, 2020. In 2020, all but one of the bellwethers picked President Donald Trump by a margin of some 16 points on average. What happened to our Democratic Party? Its horrible. Many of its residents include farmers, retirees who love to fish, and more than 3,300 military veterans. The updated report showed that Biden won 509 counties, while Trump won 2,547 counties. Peloton plans to complete construction on the building on its 200-acre property and sell it, but will downsize its workforce. Wood (population 132,248), and Ottawa, are known as bellwether counties for picking the presidential candidate who wins the White Housebut it is uncertain whether Wood County can maintain that reputation. The median household annual income is approximately, In 2016, nearly 100 million eligible Americans didnt vote. She can be reached at cara.ding@epochtimes.com, Biden Extends National Emergency Due to Extraordinary Threat of Russian Actions in Ukraine, Suburban Wisconsin Voters Divided on Presidential Race. I dont think my vote counts, he told The Epoch Times. State residents are awaiting a ruling from the Ohio Supreme Court about whether it will approve the newly proposed congressional map that the Ohio Redistricting Commission submitted to the high court earlier this month. January 5, 2021: Rep. Jordan attacks "liberal judges" and state officials for their role in the election. The ones he lost went to Biden by a margin of about four points on average. This includes personalizing content and advertising. The upper Midwest, upstate New York, and northern New England are home to a disproportionate share of high-scoring counties, they said. Hawker said although Ottawa County tends to lean more Republican, he has noticed that a lot of senior citizens who are Democrats have moved into the area. Ohios Ottawa County: Staying Afloat as One of the Top Bellwether Counties in the Country. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. We have loads that sometimes dont cover the fuel costs., During the COVID pandemic, nobody was on the roads. He worked for a tree service company for some years, but was laid off again. Vigo County voters supported Trump by a 15 percent margin in 2016. The county, located along the Illinois border, has a mix of rural and urban demographics. Since Trump got voted in, it was when I started getting into politics, Tisdell told The Epoch Times while sitting in his garage. This year, the local courthouse in Ridgway has been bustling with new voter registrations and party affiliation changes. Fitch said almost half of the 5,000-strong Second Amendment group in Elk county are Democrats. It hurts the older people like me who are on a fixed income.. From 1980 to 2012, for instance, these bellwether counties consistently voted within a few points of the national popular vote. Thats part of what has made it an effective bellwether, at least in recent decades, he said. Nothing is free, Hawker said. This is a high farming community.. Competing for the Democratic nomination are John Cranley and former Dayton Mayor Nan Whaley. The unequal geographic distribution is a somewhat curious phenomenon of bellwether counties. Hes concerned about big government, burdensome regulations, and encroachments on the Constitution. While these are the top bellwether counties, there are many more that are considered to be predictive. My opinion is thats just what it is, Shepherd said of COVID-19. We use cookies to understand how you use our site and to improve your experience. Once the two 2016 presidential candidates were locked in, she knew she couldnt vote for Clinton, while Trumps promise to drain the swamp piqued her interest. I dont feel good about the leadership in our country right now..
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bellwether counties epoch times
